Prediction of Microscopic Metastases in Patients with Metachronous Oligo-Metastases after Curative Treatment of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: A Microsimulation Study

Metachronous oligo-metastatic disease is variably defined as one to five metastases detected after a disease-free interval and treatment of the primary tumour with curative intent. Oligo-metastases in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are often treated However additional later time, 5-year survival low. Burdensome surgical patients undetected may be avoided if high versus low risk can separated. Because there no clinical data on available, microsimulation model development detection 100,000 hypothetical stage I NSCLC controlled was constructed. The uses from literature well patient-level data. Calibration used for unobservable parameters. Metastases by scheduled scan, or an unplanned scan when patient develops symptoms. observable information at time identify subgroups different undetectable metastases. We identified size number oligo-metastases, presence symptoms that most important predictors. Based these predictors, could divided into low-risk high-risk group, having model-based predicted probability 8.1% 89.3% have metastases, respectively. Currently, based synthesis individual were not collected purpose this study. Optimization validation necessary allow usability. describe type needs update our model, design such